Because of all the consternation and anxiety in the air, I think, from a mental health perspective alone, it may be useful to look at present events and see light breaking over the horizon.
The standard disclaimer for everyone still reeling from 2016 is that polls and fund-raising are not votes and nothing is certain until all the votes have been counted. But even with every imaginable nefarious scenario — voter suppression, fake ballot drop boxes, $200 checks to every senior, “miracle cure” vaccine announcements, armed “poll watchers”, and on and on — Donald Trump is poised to suffer one of the most decisive repudiations of any elected leader anywhere, certainly in our lifetimes and arguably over the entire past century.
The remarkable thing about polling for this race is that given the epic events of the past year — impeachment, pandemic, economic collapse (among lower income groups), racial protests both peaceful and violent — Trump’s “favorabilitty” numbers have barely budged. He’s still at roughly 42% with absolutely no indication that he has attracted any new support to him, or peeled anything away from Joe Biden.
In fact, since the one-two-three punch of court-packing with Amy Barrett, his boorish debate performance and his hospitalization for the virus he dismissed as a “hoax”, Biden’s numbers have pushed up virtually everywhere that matters. The “undecideds” (and who, good god are those people, and can we require them to have identifying license plates?) have goosed his numbers by three to six points across the country.
Moreover, Trump is out of money. Big donors smell a losing, bad investment. His campaign has been forced to pull TV advertising from a half dozen “must win” Midwestern states and devote what they have left to playing defense in the normally reliable Sun Belt and on social media, which means they’re preaching to the same toxic choir — and almost no one else — even more than usual.
Making things worse for himself is that every hour of every day, with his FoxNews/Rush Limbaugh call-ins, Trump looks and sounds evermore like an absurd, delusional, mentally unstable loser. (“A spray-tanned, doped-up, TV pitchman,” to quote Obama strategist David Plouffe.) Utterly ridiculous, in other words. A look underlined, highlighted and garlanded with flashing red neon by the revelation of his squalid personal finances and jaw-dropping indebtedness.
To this we must add Vladimir the Puppetmaster’s recent comment hedging his bets on the election and making understated conciliatory noises to Joe Biden … just in case his troll farms fail to excite America’s patriotic militias like they did before. I’m sure Donald in his steroid fever loved hearing that. (Did you call Vlad to complain, Donald?)
Most of all in my view is … women. Since the trifecta of the Barrett/debate/hospitalization fiascos Biden has opened a … wait for it … 23-point lead among women, a lead even greater among college-educated women. Frankly I don’t know or spend time with any women who don’t see Trump as the emodiment of everything they’ve endured and despised in, excuse my language, asshole bosses, co-workers, ex-husbands and bad boyfriends. Meanwhile, by contrast, Joe Biden seems like everyone’s genial, polite uncle.
So yes, while we should be prepared for election chaos, with Bill Barr-led court challenges to “voting irregularities”, cos-playing storm troopers (i.e. armed ex-husbands and bad boyfriends) haunting polling stations, and FoxNews pushing an early “call”, right now Donald Trump is set up to lose in a deafening defeat. A well-earned, humiliating repudiation.
All I’m saying is this: while we all keep our foot on the gas, sharpen our wooden stakes and load up the silver bullets, I think we’re entitled to allow ourselves a moment for the psychic equivalent of a reinvigorating lungful of fresh air.
If only to buoy our spirits for the bullshit coming from election to inauguration day.
I am starting to exhale, too, Brian. This piece is great writing. My favorite line:
“The “undecideds” (and who, good god are those people, and can we require them to have identifying license plates?) have goosed his numbers by three to six points across the country.
Thanks again, Brian, for lending your voice> David C. would be proud.
Mary Hanson
I think David would tell me, “Tighten it up, man. You got 20% too much verbiage here.” But thx, Mary.
All of it good and true Brian – – and to it I would add this: The still misunderstood story is that 40% of America is JUST AS BAD and complicit as Trump is. 40% – the same 40%, always — care not a whit about what is morally right and morally wrong. No matter what Trump does, nothing changes his base, and his base is virtually all the republicans. On the other hand, and to our detriment, we progressives have become moral relativists, unwilling to judge people for fear of being called “judgmental.”
Michelangelo had it right: half the people go to hell. Not just the murderers and rapists, but the hypocrites, too. I don’t know what we do with this, but until we recognize it, we face a cancerous danger.
I could not agree more. The Michigan goons are an early warning signal for Biden, and he/his Justice Department has to do something about heavily-armed white supremacist groups. But — can we imagine the reaction to one raid on a “militia enclave”? How fast can you say, “Ruby Ridge”? Beyond that is that whole culture is waiting to be re-catalyzed by someone smarter and more disciplined than Trump … like Tom Cotton … or Tucker Carlson.
“Humiliating repudiation“
I’m smiling
Every morning I get up and sa, “What can I do to put a smile on the face of The Lion of Port Richey?”
I agree with this and thanks for writing it. We’re always told to run like we’re 20 points behind until after the election, no matter what the polls say—and if others find that motivating, go for it. I don’t find preemptive grief motivating, so I’d rather keep phone-banking and enjoying the prospects of a big blue wave followed by a Third Reconstruction.
This is where we keep a knee on his neck.
Thanks for this. It helps with the anxiety. Still, for me, although Trump is a huge problem, he is not the problem. The problem is his supporters, along with the growing numbers of people believing in conspiracy theories and anti-science memes. They are not going to just go away.
As I said to Larry (see other comment) this amazingly large group of grievance-driven, low-information people are ripe for re-plucking by someone more mentally adroit than Trump. But I keep wondering how much his (wholly bogus) pop-culture celebrity fuels their enthusiasm? Does anyone doubt he and we would be where we are if not for the imagery created by “The Apprentice” — the high profile and ratings of which were exploited by all media to their commercial benefit — from CNN to FoxNews in 2016? TrumpNation is intellectually lazy. They require entertainment to fully engage.
Ruth Henriquez Lyon is spot-on. The problem is the existence of that brainwashed base of heavily-armed irrational and highly inflamed people. According to the polling averages, it’s between 42 and 46 percent of voters. Unless I’m mistaken, that’s a bigger percentage of support than Hitler got in the elections in 1933–after which there were no more elections . . . Someone mentioned Reconstruction. Reconstruction ended in repression, because the KKK terrorism was successful. Hundreds, and likely thousands of people were killed; tens of thousands whipped, shot, beaten and driven out. As I recall, the Louisiana state government was attacked by ex-rebels and dispersed. Legislators died. Armed white gangs rampaged in Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida, Mississippi, Texas, Alabama and other places. All of that happened when the federal government was still held by the Union or anti-slavery party. Today, the traitors hold the citadel of power themselves. Don’t expect that violence and bloodshed will commence on Election night. In fact, they’ve already begun. 98% of the NRA, all of the paramilitary militias, hundreds of rural sheriff’s departments, the great majority of rank-and-file police officers . . . logically, why should they refrain from insurgency? The earlier they stir up chaos, the more successful they’ll be at triggering enough disruption so that Trump can stay in office. The packed Supreme Court will ratify whatever the boss wants. After what the past four years have shown us, with this cult, they STAY conned. My question is, “do the Democrats, in the unlikely even they win, have the spine to realize that they are dealing with fascists?” And do the Democrats understand that appeasement is the wrong tack to take with fascists? I guess this comment makes me sound like a “croaker.” But I don’t see how anyone can fail to grasp that when Trump is cornered, he’ll be more dangerous than he’s ever been.
We have every reason to expect Trump in defeat will be even more reckless than in office. The question I have is how long do the rankest of the GOP enablers continue to support him … if he’s already cost a half dozen of them their seats. Guys like Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton and Mitch himself have to be thinking, “Finally. The fucker is gone. Let’s get the party going for ’24.”
I think that when Trump loses (hopefully by a very large margin), he will go back to his main concern–grifting. Making money off of his celebrity. Conning the rubes (his supporters). And he’ll probably need to do this very badly (lots of debts coming due, lots of legal expenses, lawsuits, etc.).
Which means that he certainly is not going quietly into the night, and a simple/single book deal won’t be sufficient. He will want a megaphone, and he will want to get paid for it.
I expect that if he loses clearly and obviously, his first order of business will be to:
1. Sign a TV Contract
2. Maintain his hold over his supporters (Cruz, Hawley, Cotton, you guys are getting nothing from Trump! Same with Hannity and Fox–no more free publicity. They all immediately become competitors, and the knives will be out).
3. Figure out how he can pass this down to Ivanka, Donnie and Eric.
4. Find a way to monetize his Twitter account.
5. Decide about 2024–should he run again, or should Junior?
I’m trying to decide how Fox and talk radio will handle a resoundingly defeated Trump. TrumpNation will still be a potent moneymaking audience for them … for a while. They can’t drop him like a dead cat. But they have to find a fresher face on which to hang dreams of a new savior of the old, white and aggrieved. But Cruz and every other ’24 aspirant will be out there selling the rubes on the idea that THEY are ready to pick up the Trump baton … or the Trump tiki torch.
another article on this topic:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/10/anonymous-republican-donald-trump.html
All hail the anonymous republican!
One of my favorite barometers of personal integrity are the (usually) lifelong Republicans who make a point of telling you that, “I always vote for the best man.” But who went for a third party in 2016 because of Hillary and will likely go for another fringe candidate this year, “Because I don’t like either one of them.” The more honest thing they should say is, “Anything above City Council I don’t vote for Democrats, no matter who they are.”