The tone of the TV ads of Senator Al Franken and challenger Mike McFadden could hardly be more different.
CEO McFadden has crafted his ads to remake his public image from Millionaire Mike into a jocular, lovable common man, a sort of Clark Griswold Goes To Washington.
Meanwhile, recovering comedian Franken has crafted his ads to remake his public image from shock jock Al into a earnest, wonky, propeller-headed legislator, a sort of congressional Mr. Fixit.
All of this raises an old political messaging argument: How important is likeability in politics? Is it more important for a candidate to be liked or respected?
In his quest for likeability, McFadden’s ads stray into the absurd. The millionaire explains the difficulty of living on a budget, with his polished McMansion on display over his shoulder. He scripts grade school football players to ape his critique of the complex federal health care policy. He goes for groin-shot guffaws and shallow symbolism in lieu of serious policy debate.
After all, who wouldn’t want to “have a beer with” the good time Charlie who goes soprano after pretending to get hit in the privates?
There is obviously a method to McFadden’s sophomoric madness. He is trying to make his public self likeable in order to win over swing voters — moderate Republicans, conservative Democrats and independents — who McFadden apparently believes are not interested in the more detailed policy discussions Franken is featuring in his ads.
Who knows, McFadden might be onto something. According to conventional political wisdom, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton particularly drew a lot of swing voter support due to their supposed want-to-have-a-beer-withism, while Mike Dukakis and Al Gore particularly suffered from appearing distant, dour and dorky. Just because Millionaire Mitt made a mess of his 2012 likeability tour doesn’t mean that Millionaire Mike shouldn’t try to connect with voters on a non-millionaire level.
Meanwhile, Franken seems content to sit out the likeability contest. In Franken’s rush to prove to Minnesotans that he is no longer a cartoonish comedian or pugnacious pundit, he is going all Mike Dukakis on us.
Mo Fiorina, a professor of political science at Stanford University, has researched the connection between likeability and winning at the presidential level, going back to 1952. Professor Fiorina has good news for Franken. He told National Public Radio (NPR) in 2010 that likeability is only a “minor factor” in voting:
“There’s very little historical evidence for it. The fact is we decide who is likeable after they win, not before they win. If I had been advising Mitt Romney, I would have said in the end the American people are not going to decide who they are going to have a beer with, because the American people know that they are not going to have a beer with any of these people. They are going to decide on the base of who they know is going to do the job.”
Still as a Franken supporter, I would be more comfortable if Franken wouldn’t completely cede the likeability ground to McFadden. Right now Franken’s TV ad persona is grim and flat, and even a “minor factor” ought to matter to a guy who only won by 312 votes in 2008, a much better year for Democrats than 2014 is likely to be.
If only Franken knew a good comedic writer with political instincts who could write a TV ad to lighten him up. Know anyone like that, Al?
– Loveland
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