Tag Archives: debate

Prove It Was Just “one bad night” Joe, and Do an Interview with Sean Hannity

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How Far Will Sean Hannity Go? - The New York Times

Allow me to start with the bottom line and work back from there. This particular election is much bigger than Joe Biden. Much bigger. This would not be like losing to Mitt Romney. We, meaning Democrats, are not a cult. The feelings and ego of Dear Leader are inconsequential in this election.

Okay, back to the top.

I’ve consumed way more post-debate punditry than even I thought possible. Here (redundancy alert) is a feeling of the consensus.

Joe Biden has lost the confidence of the mainstream-to-liberal media, the political intelligentsia and, less certain here, the top tier donor class, post-debate fundraising claims withstanding. In order to regain that confidence he has to demonstrate in a public, unscripted way that last Thursday was just “a bad night”, to quote team Biden.

How to do that? Well, do this:

Consent to an interview with some prominent right wing personality. Like say Sean Hannity. And do it … this week. Biden’s utter, inexplicable failure contest any of the entirely predictable bullshit thrown up by Trump last week powerfully suggests he is not capable of prosecuting a case against the pervasive histrionic nonsense motivating Republicans today. So … prove to the consistent 70% of likely voters who think you’re too old that you can play mentally adroit hardball in this age of malignant Tik Tok glibness.

Spend an hour jousting with and rebutting a MAGA sycophant live on camera.

A taped and edited 15 minutes with Lesley Stahl is not the same thing.

Then … do it again … live … in a couple town halls open to any citizen who wants in.

One of the more revealing anecdotes I’ve heard in past few days was MSNBC regular John Heilemann discussing reactions from big time Hollywood donors after a Biden fund-raiser in some mogul’s no doubt palatial home. These would be people fully committed to Biden. People he should be utterly at ease among. The kind of audience were a confident politician happily back slaps, offers candid thoughts on important matters and has to be pulled away.

But, no, says Heilemann. According to his sources in the room, Biden arrived and spent 15 minutes … reading from a Teleprompter. Those in attendance were startled. Point being; Biden is so stage-managed by his handlers (his wife being foremost among them) that they don’t risk even standard issue politician camaraderie with his most devoted, trusted and lucrative audience.

(I’m eager to hear a similar report from the weekend’s bash out in the Hamptons on Long Island.)

Moreover, as we’re hearing from all corners largely muted until now, this is how its been since 2020. The clear inference being that the persistently incoherent Biden we saw Thursday night is a not an anomaly. He may be capable enough among advisors in the Oval Office, but he can not perform in the rude and routinely disrepectful modern political arena. What he projects is anything but reassuring and confidence-inspring.

As we speak the Biuden family is at Camp David having their picture taken by Annie Lebovitz and no doubt resolving to fight on, 70% of the voting public, once supportive media, intelligentsia and panicky donor class be damned.

His most loyal supporters, most of them close personal friends and hardened Democratic activists, are selling the line that bowing out and permitting a two month Hunger Games to select a new nominee would be a kind of death wish for the party against Trump in November. I could not disagree more. I don’t know about you but the sense I get from the public regarding this race is a strong, pervasive desire for … someone new. Someone young enough to know how to reboot a computer and confident enough they’d relish the opportunity to eviscerate a clown like Trump.

And my view, FWIW, is shared by no less than David Plouffe who ran Barack Obama’s two successful campaigns. In a podcast interview post-debate disaster Plouffe who until Thursday night believed firmly that Biden was the only game in town, said he believed a new Democratic candidate, not even discounting Kamala Harris, “would win a walk”. Why? Because the general public is so weary and unenthusiastic about both Biden and Trump.

Team Biden will try to string this current phase for as long as it can, narrowing the window for any option. That’s a cynical, wholly self-serving strategy that places him personally above the far greater interests of the country. A country (and world) facing the restoration of a lazy, corrupt fool.

So yeah, if Thursday was just “one bad night”, prove it to everyone Joe, including your wife, and sit down with an easily rebutted meathead like Sean Hannity and let’s see you take him apart.

If you can’t or won’t that firmly settles any questions we may have left.

Oh My God, Joe.

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Well, that didn’t go well did it?

Rapt audience in NW Wisconsin …

“The most important 90 minutes in this campaign*,” pretty well confirmed what both critical “disinterested” voters and ferocious, Trump-fearing liberals feared most. Yes, Trump is as despicable a fraud and liar as he’s ever been, but Joe Biden, “our guy”, is plainly not up to the challenge of rebutting him.

Curious about how rural, white America would to the two performances I rolled in to my favorite northern Wisconsin road house for Taco Thursday with Trump and Joe. There were a dozen patrons, including four young women having a late happy hour. No one other than me paid any attention to the debate for the entire 90 minutes.

A cold Spotted Cow at hand, after 10 minutes the taco sauce was starting to curdle in my stomach.

Not only did Joe look every minute of 81 years, white and frail, he appeared completely unprepared for standard rally-issue Trump’s usual Niagara-like torrent of lies and bullshit. I mean, the look of stunned incredulity on Biden’s face as Trump lied about every issue in every question and called him every name in the book — except “alley cat” which Joe did manage to level at Trump — was demoralizing. There is no larger, fatter or riper target for easy evisceration on moral, ethical and competency grounds than Donald Trump and all Biden really had was indignation over “the idea” that Trump would say such things.

Trump is a known viral menace. Where was the attack, for chrissakes?

It is no doubt sage advice to give tonight’s lamentable performance a day or two or three to shake out. But it is very hard to see how this situation gets better. We live in an age where appearance carries at least equal weight to competence and Biden ‘s performance tonight very likely — very likely — confirmed exactly what people, from the low information to the high information types feared most.

So what happens now? I won’t make the Barry Goldwater and Hugh Scott going to Nixon comparison, but I believe with 100% certainty that very senior Democrats, fund-raisers and influential party poobahs are already pulling the fire alarm and will soon, (very soon), begin the work of convincing Biden to step aside. Unless polling shows something I certainly don’t expect, he’ll have no choice but to listen and acknowledge reality. He, like everyone else, knows what a hideous threat Trump represents.

There’ll be a short window — seven weeks — to mount a frenzied, whirlwind campaign of possible successors, something unheard of in the past hundred years or so, LBJ in ’68 sort of withstanding. A fresh candidate — almost any candidate save Bernie again — will invigorate the remainder of the campaign.

We live in unprecedented times. But Donald Trump restoration is an apocalyptic fate none of us on this side of the aisle of competency and decorum can allow to happen.

What a goddam mess.

  • Obama campaign manager David Plouffe.

The High(est) Anxiety Debate Ever.

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Debate questions they'll never ask Biden, Trump | Will Bunch Newsletter

Quite frankly, it is unsettling when someone like David Plouffe says he’s never felt a higher level of personal anxiety for a presidential debate than the one tonight. Plouffe, if you follow the news, is the man who led Barack Obama’s two campaigns and has been through more debate prep and spin than he cares to remember.

Plouffe was talking with his fellow Obama team colleague David Axelrod and long time Republican campaign operator turned ardent Never Trumper, Mike Murphy on their “Hacks on Tap” podcast yesterday.

To summarize his key points of concern/anxiety and strategy for Biden:

1: Biden has to be not just “ok” or “passable” in the eyes of the general, largely disinterested public. He has to be surprisingly good. While expectations for him are low, despite Team Trump lately trying to re-imagine sleepy and senile a veteran, polished debater jacked up on coke or Mountain Dew, the TV audience — a much larger audience than has paid attention to this race until now — has to leave the night nigh-on-to-startled by the Joe Biden they’ve just seen. Anything less and the balance of the race remains static or, given a Biden flop, collapses to a point of no return.

2: Biden has to attack early and often on the abortion/reproductive rights issue and the threat of more like that to come given that Trump will likely have two more Supreme Court seats to fill next term. (He also believes CNN’s Jake Tapper and Dana Bash have to press that issue.)

3: On the economy, Biden has to have a deft pivot on Trump’s assertions that inflation and the world in general is out of control and things were much cheaper and calmer when he was in office.

4: If Trump comes out of the debate perceived as the victor, largely as a result of Biden fitting the perception that he is too old and feeble, Plouffe expects Trump to pass on the second debate in late September. He’ll have made his point and see no reason to risk a re-match. Likewise, Plouffe thinks Biden should consider something similar if he far exceeds expectations. In other words, this could be the one and only face-to-face we see … in a race where the country is unequivocally exchanging competence for chaos and personal retribution.

5: There has never been a debate remotely comparable to this one. No debate ever with so stark a contrast between the two candidates. Biden has to make that contrast indelible in the minds of viewers. And he has to do it while maintaining the image and tenor of the adult in the room.

Good luck, Joe.

What Was Elizabeth Warren Thinking?

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I still don’t understand the purpose of Elizabeth Warren “letting it be known” that Bernie Sanders told her a woman couldn’t get elected president. If she wasn’t prepared to contradict him to his face and say, “That’s what you said, Bernie” in last night’s debate, why bring it up at all?

The story of Warren and Sanders having a private conversation in 2018 and Bernie saying what she claims he said pretty clearly originated from her campaign, yet her prepared response when asked at the debate brushed it aside and spun off into how Amy Klobuchar and her have never lost an election.

What am I missing?

It may just be a personal thing, but I’m appalled by people who engage in private conversations only to hit the PA system when what was said — between friends — serves their greater purposes. It’s a fundamental violation of “trustworthiness.” If you’re truly a friend, you retain that confidence … no matter what.

Warren’s too-slick by half non-response to being asked (essentially) if Bernie said what she said he said contrasts with Sanders’ response, which was a lot more digestible. Namely, that given Hillary Clinton’s three million popular vote plurality two years earlier, what sort of fool would ever say a woman couldn’t win?

There’s an interesting debate discussion to be had with the various candidates breaking down the particular pitfalls facing: the kinda doddery old professional DC animal, the billionaire(s), the really smart but pretty damn young gay dude, the you-can-smell-the-ambition-through-her-pores Midwestern Mom, the old socialist and the up-from-hard-scrabble-professor … who doesn’t seem as trusted a good friend as her advertised scruples would otherwise suggest.

But we didn’t have THAT debate.

Hillary Won the Battle, But Donald Could Still Win the War

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NEW BLOG PHOTO_edited- 3In the 20 minutes it took me to drive home from a debate-watching party last night the “elite media” decided that Donald Trump badly lost the first debate with Hillary Clinton and that as ridiculous as he looked and sounded (the sniffing!) it wasn’t going to matter all that much.

In 2016 when everyone with a smartphone is a pundit and a publisher, citizen-satirists spat out some hilarious bits overnight. Like, for example, Donald Trump’s constant sniffing set to Eric Clapton’s “Cocaine”. We also got a re-visit of Rose O’Donnell’s Trump imitation, and her “Daily Show” “history of The Donald”. Not to mention, if sick jokes are your thing, scalding fact-check after scalding fact check. Not that, the cable heads reminded each other, either Trump or his people care all that much about facts..

Conventional wisdom this morning is that Trump was exposed to well over 80 million people, many of whom have never seen him one-on-one with a serious opponent who wasn’t pandering to the same low-information voter base. The jabbering mess that he was last night may move a few “educated white suburban voters” away from him. Either that  or away from the voting booth entirely.

Other speculation I’ve seen over the last eight hours suggests “independent-minded” millennials clinging to either Jill Stein or Gary Johnson may … may … decide that since Hillary didn’t come off like Margaret Hamilton as The Wicked Witch of the West they might, y’know like, go for her after all. Despite “all that crooked stuff about her”, almost none of which they can explain with any detail or coherence.

But as much as I thought Hillary did just fine — she can drop the “trumped up trickle down” line — I watched Trump and kept thinking, “This works for him. It makes no sense at all. But it sounds like the same gilded-Mussolini, tough strutting egomaniac that ‘his people’ adore.” What they saw last night was the same thing they’ve seen since the get-go. Namely, “The guy who is going to stick it to everyone and everything that has made my life the mess it is.”

My belief about that is based on what I have come to accept as a fact. Namely, that wonky policy stuff — nuclear triads, strategic alliances, pre-school baby care and all that liberal, nanny state think tank BS — matters far, far less to the average “Trumpist” than, “blowing shit up”, for lack of a better phrase. Trump’s is a grievance and resentment campaign. His people don’t want “change” so much as they want vengeance on everyone that FoxNews, Rush Limbaugh and Breitbart say have done them wrong. There’s nothing constructive, no “making America great again” about it.

As along as Trump keeps picking scabs and pressing hair-trigger emotional buttons like he did in the debate, with his visions of roaming gangs of gun-wielding immigrants turning Chicago into Aleppo, he won’t lose a single vote of the irrationally terrified, angry and under-informed. Or the “37.5% who will vote for a bag of cement with an ‘R’ painted on it”, to quote Trump-despising GOP operative Mike Murphy.

A year ago I said I could see a path to Trump actually winning (although I still don’t think he will). It was based on this simple math. If he rallies even 10% of the “low information” crowd who rarely if ever vote, and adds them to the “37.5%” who will vote for any Republican no matter if he is an “orange anus”, to quote Rosie O’Donnell, he becomes POTUS 45.

The gobsmacked “elites” (that’d be TV talking heads everywhere but on FoxNews, all Democrats but mainly Hollywood liberals, and anyone who went to college and reads books with multi-syllable words) continue to flounder about trying to explain why Trump hasn’t cratered. Theories abound. But one explanation that hasn’t been examined closely enough is Trump’s vernacular and speaking rhythm, its similarity to religion and advertising, and how effective that is with an audience almost entirely “informed” by TV and pop culture.

Allow me to quote from length, James Fallows in this month’s Atlantic cover story

***

“Donald Trump’s language is notably simple and spare, at every level from word choice to sentence and paragraph structure. Of a thousand examples I’ll use just a few.

In the second Republican debate, hosted by CNN and held at the Reagan library, in California, moderator Jake Tapper asked Trump to explain his ‘build a wall’ immigration plan. Tapper said that fellow candidate Chris Christie had called it impractical. How would Trump respond? He did so this way:

‘First of all, I want to build a wall, a wall that works. So important, and it’s a big part of it.

Second of all, we have a lot of really bad dudes in this country from outside, and I think Chris knows that, maybe as well as anybody.

They go. If I get elected, first day they’re gone. Gangs all over the place. Chicago, Baltimore, no matter where you look.

We have a country based on laws.’

Bad dudes. A wall that works. Gangs all over the place.

After the first GOP debate Jack Shafer, of Politico, ran the transcript of Trump’s remarks through the Flesch-Kinkaid analyzer of reading difficulty, which said they matched a fourth-grade reading level. One of Trump’s press conferences at about the same time was at a third-grade level.

 In political language, plainness is powerful. ‘Of the people, by the people, for the people’. ‘Ask not what your country can do for you’. ‘I have a dream’. This is especially so for language designed to be heard, like speeches and debate exchanges, rather than read from a page. People absorb and retain information in smaller increments through the ear than through the eye. Thus the classic intonations of every major religion have the simple, repetitive cadence also found in the best political speeches. ‘In the beginning’. ‘And it was good’. ‘Let us pray’.
But Trump takes this much further, as he does with so many other things. Decades ago, when I worked on presidential speeches, some news analyst made fun of me for saying in an interview that we were aiming for a seventh-grade level in a certain televised address. But that is generally the level of effective mass communication—newscasts, advertising, speeches—and it is about where most of the other Republicans ended up when Shafer ran their transcripts through the analyzer. (Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, and Scott Walker were at an eighth-grade level; Ted Cruz at ninth; and John Kasich at fifth.)

Another illustration: At a Fox Business debate in January in Charleston, South Carolina, Maria Bartiromo asked Trump about criticism from South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, also a Republican, that his tone was too angry. The transcript shows:

‘I’m very angry because our country is being run horribly, and I will gladly accept the mantle of anger. Our military is a disaster’. [The outlier word here is mantle.]

(APPLAUSE)

‘Our health care is a horror show. Obamacare, we’re going to repeal it and replace it. We have no borders. Our vets are being treated horribly. Illegal immigration is beyond belief. Our country is being run by incompetent people. And yes, I am angry’.

(APPLAUSE)

‘And I won’t be angry when we fix it, but until we fix it, I’m very, very angry. And I say that to Nikki. So when Nikki said that, I wasn’t offended. She said the truth’.

This is the classic language of both persuasion and sales—simple, direct, unmistakable, strong.”

***

Trump’s sustained viability has nothing to do with any specific remedies he has for the end-of-days apocalyptic disaster he imagines outside our windows. He is where he is because he, and he alone of everyone running this year, speaks in a way — full of terse, resonant, “See Dick run” emotional cues — that an astonishing/appalling chunk of the population finds reassuring and inspiring.

Weird as that sounds.

 

 

Thank God for Rand Paul in Milwaukee

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Lambert_to_the_SlaughterMy favorite moment in last night’s Republican debate/barnstorming reality TV show, was Rand Paul butting in after one of Donald Trump’s rants about how the Chinese are always winning … because Barack Obama has turned America into such a pathetic no-class loser. It was a question about the Trans Pacific Partnership that got him whipped up. Wiley damn Chinese vs. Loser Americans who can’t negotiate a good deal. A Trump staple.

But then Paul, who was once the average adult’s idea of a delusional whack-job, piped up and suggested the Fox Business News panel, which included Gerard Baker, the editor of the Wall Street Journal, (you know, every shrewd businessman’s first source for the complete story on money and the bastards beating them to it), that it might be useful to pint out that the Chinese aren’t even a part of this deal.

Oh.

But as much as I was hoping for an Emily Latella moment from Trump, it was not forthcoming. What we got was, be thankful for small favors, a little filler commentary from Paul on the fact that the Chinese actually aren’t all that wild about this TPP thing either, since it’s greasing the skids for more trading between us and other folks around the Pacific. (This would argue in favor of the TPP if you were a serious China hater.)

Now, not being an international trade expert, all I knew about the TPP was what I read in the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. And frankly, as Trump was ranting the best I could come up with was a niggling ring tone that something wasn’t right with his argument. But come on! After three and a half of these trips to Toon Town, I have something like an air raid siren going off in my head every three or four seconds over “things that don’t sound right”. Giant damned air horns howling that what I just heard is utter bullshit of a nuclear order. After that, “niggling” kind of gets lost in the reverb.

Here’s a small sampling of fact-checking on last night’s BS.

So yes, I was grateful when Sen. Paul reminded his opponents, the Fox Business panel, and everyone scoring at home about this teeny, tiny little Chinese detail.

Being in the news biz what immediately went through my head was why none of the Fox money mavens had butted in and corrected Trump? He had been ranting for a while. I mean, if I was vaguely aware of this critical detail just from reading Mr. Baker’s paper you’d think he’d be a little faster on the draw having, you know, published it.

Baker did follow up with a classic Wall Street Journal explainer about how even though the Chinese aren’t involved there are fears they’ll still exploit the deal to their advantage. But that’s only if the Senate passes it, which everyone in Milwaukee agreed would be, you know, yet another episode of liberal-induced Armageddon. Right after … Obamacare, Dodd-Frank, “amnesty” of illegal immigrants, ISIS, the gutting of our military, Hillary Clinton’s pant suits and every regulation ever authored by anyone under Barack Obama. In other words, a kind of serial Armageddon, you understand. (When you’re talking to the Republican base you can’t invoke too many Armageddon scenarios.)

Fox Business is being credited for a more composed debate than CNBC two weeks ago in Denver. And, frankly, some of the questions were pretty good. Like Maria Bartiromo, (aka “The Money Honey”) putting this one to Carly Fiorina.

 …in seven years under President Obama, the U.S. has added an average of 107,000 jobs a month. Under President Clinton, the economy added about 240,000 jobs a month. Under George W. Bush, it was only 13,000 a month. If you win the nomination, you’ll probably be facing a Democrat named Clinton. How are you going to respond to the claim that Democratic presidents are better at creating jobs than Republicans?

Heh.

Naturally, Fiorina, who previously urged everyone to watch a sickening abortion video … that doesn’t exist, completely ignored the question and hammered home instead her pet Road to Armageddon messages, most of which can be avoided by a three page tax form and a green room chat with Vladimir Putin.

(BTW, didn’t you love it when Trump said, “I’m the biggest militarist on this stage”?)

Point being, somewhere along with asking these fearsome socialist slayers if they’re a “comic book version of a presidential candidate” (glib, but not all that far off the point) and hitting them with actual facts on job creation, (implicitly proving that the U.S economy invariably performs better under the active governance of Democrats), there’s a place for aggressive follow-ups.

Bartiromo et al injected quite a few, “Too be clear, sir/madams” last night trying to pull an actual answer out of the bombardment of stump speech messaging. But they never got so rude as to, you know, demand an answer and/or correct a flagrant blast of bullshit.

Which is why Rand Paul, who has clearly decided, “What the hell, I’m letting it fly” was so valuable last night. Like his old man, Paul is 85% crackers and 15% rational. That lesser percentage covered a lot of the timidity of the Fox Business moderators. Like that shot at slippery little Marco Rubio — such an adorable weasel, you just want to pinch his cheeks — about adding another $2 trillion in tax credits and military spending (for hard-working ISIS-fearing American families, you isolationist bastard!) … without even trying to pay for it.

Since Paul’s chances of winning a million bucks on FanDuel are better than out-Armageddoning the likes of Ted Cruz, Rubio or Fiorina, I propose dropping him out as a candidate and in as a moderator for the next debate, which, damn it anyway, is a whole month from now.

What am I’m going to have to do until then? Switch back to “Naked Dating” for my reality fix?