Star Tribune Survey Delivers Mixed News for Dayton Tax Package

Posted on by

For Governor Dayton’s bold package of tax increases, there was more good news than bad in the Star Tribune’s Minnesota Poll, released yesterday.

Bad News for Dayton

  • Bye Bye Professional Services Tax.  Only 28% of Minnesotans support a sales tax on business services.  With only 36% of DFLers supporting this idea, and an army of special interests mobilized against it, this part of the Governor’s budget is in deep political trouble.

So-So News for Dayton

The news is not universally awful on the services sales tax front, though:

  • Personal Services Tax?  Maybe.  While a sales tax on professional services is unpopular (28% support), a sales tax on “personal services such as haircuts and auto repair” has considerably more support (45% support, 48% oppose).  Interestingly, the difference between the DFL (44% support) and GOP (40% support) is nearly within the poll’s 3.5% margin of error.  To me, this is the most surprising finding.  This is politically difficult, but it may not be out-of-reach yet.

Good News for Dayton

On most other issues where the Governor and the GOP are battling fiercely, Minnesotans are siding with the Governor:

  • Wealthy Tax Rallies the Base.  A  majority (54%), though not an overwhelming one, support “raising state income taxes on married couples with taxable income over $250,000 and single filers with taxable income over $150,000.”  There is a ginormous partisan gap on this issue – 82% support among DFLers, and 37% support among GOPers.  Independents are in a statistical dead heat – 43% support and 45% oppose.  This is the defining partisan issue of our times.
  • All Over It Like A Cheap Suit.  About half (49%) of Minnesotans support instituting a sales tax on clothing items costing more than $100, while 42% oppose.  Even 44% of Republicans support this strategy, along with two-thirds of DFLers.  Interestingly, women (57% support) are much more likely to support the clothing sales tax proposal than men (40% support).
  • Last Call for Alcohol.  If Dayton, who has been open about the fact that he is a recovering alcoholic, needs to backfill for the loss of revenue from the demise of the services sales tax , an alcohol tax is a popular alternative that Dayton has not yet embraced.  Six-out-ten (61%) Minnesotans support “raising the state tax on alcohol in place of other proposed tax increases.”  Interestingly, there is a two-to-one gender gap on this issue, with women more likely to say “cheers” to the idea.
  • Tobacco Tax Support A Foregone Conclusion.  The Star Tribune didn’t even bother to poll on the Governor’s lifesaving tobacco tax proposal, probably because the public has been so overwhelmingly supportive in past polls.

Bottom line:  While part of the services sales tax looks to be toast, Dayton has pretty solid  support for most of the rest of his tax package.  In a state where tax increases have been considered politically radioactive for many years, Dayton has  reason to feel good about that.  At the moment, the data suggest Minnesota is a fairly progressive place.

– Loveland

3 thoughts on “Star Tribune Survey Delivers Mixed News for Dayton Tax Package”

  1. Re: tobacco tax. Read in NYTimes that Hungary has tax on fat, salt and sugar. Potato chips, for example, are damned expensive. Hungary has high obesity and heart problem rates, and illnesses from unhealthy eating cost everybody because of health care costs. Many European countries have some similar taxes.

    Hmmmmm. No wonder Republicans warn us against becoming Europe. OK to tax cigs, but don’t touch Frito Lay. Food and beverage companies have such nice lobbyists and lovely campaign contributions.

    • That’s an interesting one. Frank Luntz would have his obedient troops chanting “snack tax,” “treat tax,” or something like that, and it would be dead in a week, right?

      There are very good public policy reasons for taxing tobacco. It gets people to quit and that saves money and lives. But candidly, it passes because only about a quarter of people smoke these days, and the public is more open to taxing others. But almost everyone eats crap at least some of the time, and that makes the politics of a junk food tax much more difficult than a tobacco tax.

  2. The parasite left wing kooks that populate MN want someone else to pay for their goodies. What a brilliant poll. Maybe we should make all the dark people do all the work while we sit around and drink mint julips. Ooops, that was tried before and didn’t work. Inquiring minds come to this website to read inane regurgitated Progressive sophisms.

Comments are closed.